Top Of The Third

Friday, 18 March 2016

2016 MLB Team Preview: Houston Astros

Houston Astros

2015 Win/Loss Record: 86-76, 2^nd in American League West, second Wild Card spot

Last Postseason Appearance: 2015

Last World Series Championship: None

Key Arrivals: Ken Giles (P)

Key Departures: Chris Carter (1B), Jed Lowrie (3B), Chad Qualis (P)

Manager: A.J. Hinch, 2^nd Year, W/L 86-76 (175-199 in 3 years with D-Backs and Astros)

Overall Review: The experts predicted that the Houston Astros would be competitive in 2017. They made it two years earlier than that. In their third season in the American League, Houston made a dramatic turnaround from the three consecutive 100+ loss seasons from 2011-13 and the 92 losses in 2014. They qualified as the second AL Wild Card, upset the Yankees in the Wild Card game and nearly knocked off the eventual World Champion Kansas City Royals in the ALDS.

The starting lineup and the starting pitching basically remains intact and the Astros will be looking for all players to step it up and be even better than last year. It’s very possible--because playing in the rather weak AL West should see Houston return to the post season in 2016--that a division title and a trip to the World Series would not out of the question.

Offense: It starts with second baseman Jose Altuve. In only his fourth full season in the Majors, Altuve has proven he is a perennial All-Star. He even added a Gold Glove proving he is outstanding as much in the field as he is at the plate. Speaking of his offense, he led the NL in hits (200) and stolen bases (38) while batting .313, hitting 15 home runs and driving in 66 from the top of the order. At 20 years of age, shortstop Carlos Correa played in 99 games in his rookie year and proved he is another potential All-Star in Houston’s lineup. He batted .279 and smashed 22 home runs and added 66 RBIs. Projected over the course of a full season, Correa could hit thirty dingers.

Designated hitter Evan Gattis had a low average (.246) but he did smack 27 home runs and add 88 RBIs. Right-fielder George Springer can also provide some pop. In only 102 games, he managed to hit 16 homers while driving in 41 and stealing 16 bases. The team loses some power with the departure of first baseman Chris Carter (24 HRs) and his replacement, Jon Singleton, isn’t a proven everyday player yet. Left-fielder Colby Rasmus had a bit of a resurgence with the Astros after being an underachiever in his three seasons in Toronto. In 2015, Rasmus batted only .238 but did hit 25 homers and 61 RBIs in 137 games.

Pitching: The Astros boast the 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner in Dallas Keuchel. A record of 20-8, with an ERA of 2.48 and 216 strike outs was enough edge out Toronto’s/Detroit’s David Price for the award. But Houston almost had another 20-game winner. Collin McHugh had a 19-7 record, a 3.89 ERA and 171 strike outs. Pencilled in for the other three starters are Lance McCullers (6-7, 3.22, 129 in 22 starts), Scott Feldman (5-5, 3.90, 16 in 18 starts) and Mike Fiers (2-1, 3.32, 59 in nine starts, including a no-hitter.)

The bullpen was a bit of a problem for Houston down the stretch. In the final two months, they were 8-13, a balloon-type 4.28 ERA and five blown saves in only 17 chances. Luke Gregerson was the closer last year but he has been demoted to a middle-reliever role. Ken Giles will fill the closer role in 2016. With the Phillies last year, Giles was 6-3, a 1.80 ERA and 15 saves. Tony Sipp was brilliant as the set-up man (3-4, 1.99 and 62 K’s) and should continue to be so again this year.

Astros' left-hander Dallas Keuchel

Prediction: Ahead of schedule, the Astros should continue to improve in 2016. A division title should be theirs when the end of September rolls around and they will go even deeper into the postseason this year. They had a two games to one lead over Kansas City in the ALDS and a 6-2 lead in Game 4. However, the bullpen collapsed and KC won the game 9-6 and would take Game Five. A stronger bullpen will go a long way into getting Houston into the World Series for the first time since 2005.

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Thursday, 17 March 2016

2016 MLB Team Preview: Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals

2015 Win/Loss Record: 83-79, 2^nd in National League East

Last Postseason Appearance: 2014

Last World Series Championship: None

Key Arrivals: Daniel Murphy (2B), Ben Revere (OF), Yusmeiro Petit (P)

Key Departures: Drew Storen (P), Doug Fister (P), Jordan Zimmerman (P)

Manager: Dusty Baker, 1^st Year,

W/L (1671-1504 in 20 years with Giants, Cubs and Reds)

Overall Review: Let’s pretend last year didn’t happen. There’s too much talent on this team to be finishing in second place in the NL East. But for the Montreal Expos’ twelfth season playing in Washington, the team will be back on top in the division and will finally make it to the NLCS. Their previous two postseason appearances resulted in early exits. Shouldn’t happen this year.

Losing Jordan Zimmermann to the Detroit Tigers will hurt the starting staff. And they traded their second-best relief pitcher Drew Storen to the Blue Jays for Ben Revere. But even with those departures, both the rotation and the bullpen are in very good shape, provided they aren’t hampered by injuiry and dugout bickerings.

Offense: The National League’s best player resides in Washington. That would be reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper, who at only 22 years of age batted .330, led the NL with 42 home runs and drove in 99. He has already been an All-Star three times and he was the NL’s Rookie of the Year in 2012. It’s hard to believe he has accomplished so much while being so young and he’s got Albert Pujols potential, provided he can stay healthy. Left-fielder Jayson Werth is running out of years. He will be 37 in 2016 and can’t seem to avoid the injury bug as he ages. In his five seasons since coming over from Philly, Werth has only played more than 130 games twice. Last year, in 88 games, he batted a paltry .221, hit 12 homers and added 42 RBIs.

Second baseman Daniel Murphy joins the Nats from division rival, the Mets and brings with him a .281 average from New York. Murphy also hit 14 home runs and drove in 73 last year. Centre-fielder Michael Taylor will be a contributer but needs to improve on his .229 average from a year ago. He did, however, hit 14 homers and added 63 RBIs while stealing 16 bases. His speed helps him catch a lot of balls hit into the gaps.

Pitching: The starting staff is the strength of the team, and will determine how far the Nats will advance in the postseason. Max Scherzer will be the ace of the staff in his second season in Washington after coming over from Detroit. His 2.79 ERA deserved better than his 14-12 record. With some run support this year, he could win 20 games. He struck out 276 batters in 228 2/3 innings. Stephen Strasburg will take another shot at being the big-time starter Washington was hoping they were getting when they drafted him first overall in 2009. Health issues have nagged him since he came into the league but the potential is still there, but he’s 27 now and needs to turn it up a notch. He was 11-7 last year with a 3.46 ERA and 155 strikeouts.

The bullpen will be led by closer Jonathan Papelbon. His little dugout spat with Bryce Harper is supposedly a thing of the past now, but Papelbon has a reputation for having a bit of toxic personality. Splitting 2015 with the Phillies and Nationals, Papelbon had 24 saves, and has 349 in his career.

Nationals' hurler Max Scherzer

Prediction: The Nationals should rebound from their disappointing season and win the NL East Division. However, they have travelled this path before where they look like one of the best teams in March, only to falter when it matters. New manager Dusty Baker will have to get some egos in check, but he brings a managerial pedigree over a 20-year career.

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Wednesday, 16 March 2016

2016 MLB Team Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia Phillies

2015 Win/Loss Record: 63-99, 5^th in National League East

Last Postseason Appearance: 2011

Last World Series Championship: 2008

Key Arrivals: Jeremy Hellickson (P), Charlie Morton (P), David Hernandez (P)

Key Departures: Cliff Lee (P), Jeff Francoeur (OF), Aaron Harang (P)

Manager: Pete Mackanin, 2^nd Year, W/L 37-51
(90-104 in 3 years with Pirates, Reds and Phillies)

Overall Review: The Philadelphia Phillies are proof that the window of opportunity for success can slam shut pretty quickly. After winning five straight division titles from 2007-11 (including two NL Pennants and one World Championship) the Phillies have fallen fast and hard. They narrowly missed 100 losses last season by one, it doesn’t look like there will be much improvement in 2016.

Players like Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are gone from those playoff contenders, leaving only Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz from the championship team of 2008. Some free agent pitchers acquired in the off season will hopefully help keep the Phillies away from triple digit losses, but may not be enough to get them out of the basement.

Offense: Even though first baseman Howard and catcher Ruiz are still on the club, they are no longer the players they used to be due to age, injuries and wear and tear. Howard hit a dreadful .229 last year and hit only 23 home runs and 77 RBIs, pretty meagre totals from someone who used to consistently average more than 40 and 130 per season. And Ruiz only managed a .211 average in 86 games last year and hit two home runs and had 22 RBIs. I would like to say they will be looking for a comeback this year, but chances of that happening are very slim.

On the positive side, third baseman Maikel Franco could be a future superstar. He has power to all fields and considering Citizen’s Bank Ballpark is a homer-friendly facility, he could hit as many as 35, should he play all year. In 80 games in 2015, Franco batted .280 with 14 homers and 50 RBIs. Centre-fielder Odubel Herrera is great defensively, with the ability to fill the gaps quickly and he has a strong arm. At the plate last year, he hit. 297, and managed to hit eight home runs, add 41 RBIs and steal 16 bases. If both Franco and Herrera continue to develop, the Phillies have two building blocks for the future.

Pitching: The rotation was so horrible last year, that any improvement brought in by the three starters will be welcome for the Phillies’ fans. Jeremy Hellickson comes over from Arizona, where he was 9-12 for the D-Backs last year, with a 4.62 ERA and 121 strikeouts. His nine wins would have led the Phillies in 2015. Also new to the rotation is Charlie Morton, who was 9-9, had a 4.81 and 96 strikeouts in 23 games with the Pirates, and Brett Oberholtzer, who was pitched in eight games with the Astros and was 2-2, with a 4.46 ERA and 27 strike outs. The ace of the staff may be 22-year old Aaron Nola. In his first season in the Bigs, Nola had a 6-2 record in 13 starts. His ERA was 3.59 and he struck out 68.

The bullpen will be anchored by former D-Back David Hernandez, who will fill the closer’s role. Over his career he has pitched six seasons split between Baltimore and Arizona. He has 19 saves in 284 relief appearances and basically gets the closer role as no one else on the roster is capable of fulfilling it.

Philadelphia slugger, Ryan Howard

Prediction: The Phillies may have improved enough to get out of the basement in the NL East. They definitely won’t lose 100 games and with the Braves being so horrible, the Phillies should finish in fourth. But they are a long way from catching the other three teams in the division. Fourth will be the best they could accomplish in 2016.

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