The second
half of the baseball season starts tonight, and I guess there’s no better time
than now to give my prediction of what to expect by the end of the season.
Now I have to put forth a
disclaimer: Predictions, whether they’re written on a personal blog like this,
or if they’re come via an expert from ESPN, MLB.com or Sports Illustrated, are
nothing more than thoughts that have no virtually no merit behind them. Most
experts use their “extensive knowledge” and try to give you stats and past
situations explaining why the picks they give will come to fruition, but in reality, nobody knows what may happen.
I like to make predictions so
that if I, by chance, do manage to get even one right, I can look back and say,
“Hey, I made the right pick. I’m an expert.” But seriously, there’s no
validity in any pick that is made. They’re just fun, that’s all.
Okay, here are my picks for the
rest of the 2015 MLB season. We’ll start with the American League today and the
National League will follow this weekend. Enjoy.
American League West
I guess you’d have to say the
surprise of the baseball season so far is the Houston Astros. They’re
challenging the Los Angeles Angels for first place after finishing fourth in
the division last year, 28 games behind. But you have to wonder if they’re
about to fade as their second half of the season gets set to begin again on
Friday night.
On July 3, they held a five game
lead over the second place Angels and have seen that lead rapidly diminish over
the last couple of weeks. Granted, the Angels are playing some good baseball as
of late but considering the Astros have lost six in a row and eight of nine,
it’s not surprising to see them slip out of the top spot before the break.
If they are to snap out it and
quickly re-establish themselves as the good team they were at the end of June,
they will need to get production from second baseman Jose Altuve. The
fifth-year player is hitting just under .300 with twenty-five stolen bases so
far this year. The Astros have five players with more than ten homeruns (Luis
Valbuena 19, Chris Carter 15, Evan Gattis 15, George Springer 13 and Colby
Rasmus 11) but only one of those players has a batting average better than
.250, that being Springer at .264.
They need to improve their team
average and hit better with men on base if they hope to stay ahead of the
Angels for much longer.
And speaking of the Angels, they
ended the first half with a 12-3 record and, as I mentioned earlier, been
playing awfully well since the middle of June.
Leading the charge is
re-juvenated first baseman Albert Pujols, who is finally earning his
high-priced contract that he signed four years ago. Although his batting
average is not the same Pujols-type average we saw when he was in St. Louis, he
has hit 26 homeruns and added 56 RBIs. He’s on pace to finish in the high
forties in homers and well over the one hundred mark in RBIs.
Add in the impressive Mike Trout—who
just earned his second All-Star Game MVP award—with 26 homers and 55 RBIs and
you have enough power to compete with any duo in the league.
To finish off the rest of division,
Texas needs Prince Fielder to keep swatting and Josh Hamilton to return to his
MVP form of several years ago in order to compete for possibly a wild-card
spot. Seattle continues to disappoint despite the high-spending and the Oakland
A’s, I’m afraid, are finding out that the Billy-Ball success they’ve had over
the last fifteen years can’t last forever.
Predicted order of finish: Los Angeles,
Texas, Houston, Seattle, Oakland
American League Central
It’s not surprising to see Kansas City with a decent-sized lead at the
break when you look at the success they had last year. It’s obvious it will
continue with the hitting and pitching they have.
Shortstop Alcides Escobar, first
baseman Eric Hosmer and centerfielder Lorenzo Cain will continue to lead the
charge offensively, while the pitching strength will still be in the bullpen.
The three-headed monster of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland will
continue to shut the door and protect the lead in late innings.
I’d have to say one of the
biggest surprises of the baseball season has to be the Minnesota Twins. After
finishing last in the Central in 2014 with a record of 70-92, the Twins have
turned it around this year and sit four and a half games behind the Royals at
the break. They also hold down one of the Wild Card spots and should be in
pretty good shape heading into the second half.
The Twins are led offensively by
second baseman Brian Dozier (.256 average, 19 homeruns, 50 rbi), first baseman
Joe Mauer (.271, 6, 42) and rightfielder Torii Hunter (.257, 14, 49) returning
to the Twins after spending the last several season with the Angels and Detroit
Tigers.
And speaking of the Tigers, what
is going on there? With all the talent they have, it’s hard to believe that
they’ve been struggling to stay above the .500 mark all season.
While the offensive leaders,
Miquel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Jose Iglesias have been putting up decent
numbers, the pitching has been merely lackluster. David Price is the only
starter to have an ERA less than 4.25 (his is sitting at 2.38) but only has a
9-2 record due to lack of run support and the bullpen being unable to hold
leads.
The Cleveland Indians and
Chicago Whitesox have been improving but being in the division that they are in
will probably prevent both of them from challenging for a playoff spot.
Predicted order of finish: Kansas City,
Detroit, Minnesota, Cleveland, Chicago
American League East
Well, this division has pretty much been a disaster for the first half of
the season. Thank goodness the Yankees went on a bit of a run in the last couple
of weeks so that at least one team in the division has a half-decent record.
The post Derek Jeter era has
gone better for the Yankees than most would have expected. Outfielders Jacoby
Elsbury and Brett Gardiner are putting up solid numbers and the pitching is
holding up fairly well despite ace C.C. Sabatthia having a disappointing year
thus far.
But I think the Baltimore
Orioles have too much talent to stay behind the Yankees for much longer. Chris
Davis, Manny Machado and Adam Jones need to keep producing offensively in order
for the O’s to put on a charge to take the division. Pitchers Wei-Yin Chen, Ubaldo
Jimenez and Miguel Gonzalez will also have better second halves enabling
Baltimore to finish at the top of the division.
The Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay
Rays and Boston Red Sox, despite showing flourishes of being decent teams, will
all continue to fall further behind as the Yankees and Orioles will continue to
improve.
Predicted order of finish: Baltimore,
New York, Boston, Toronto, Tampa Bay
Playoff Prediction
Wild Card Game: Detroit
over New York
ALDS: Kansas City
over Detroit
Baltimore over Los Angeles
ALCS: Baltimore
over Kansas City
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