Monday, 28 December 2015

College Bowl Previews: Cotton and Orange (CFP)

                Now that Christmas has wrapped up and we start planning on a New Year’s resolution to start exercising and dieting to lose that extra weight we all put on over this past weekend, we can also start looking at the major college bowls that will be played on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. The College Football Playoff that went into effect last year has expanded the major bowls from four in the old days of the BCS system (those bowls were the Fiesta, Rose, Orange and Sugar) to six (the Cotton and Peach are now included.) The CFP semi-finals are rotated among the six bowls each year. Last year it was the Rose and the Sugar, this year will be the Cotton and the Orange.


                Today we will look at the Cotton Bowl and the Orange Bowl, the CFP semi-final games that will take place on New Year’s Eve. The winners of these games will play for the College Football National Championship on January 11.
                The Orange Bowl will kick off at 4 pm on New Year’s Eve with the undefeated, number one ranked Clemson Tigers taking on the number four seed Oklahoma Sooners. The Tigers are in pursuit of their first National Championship since 1981 and are the ACC championships having won all thirteen of their games.


                After having come into the season ranked only at number 12 in the national polls, Clemson quickly asserted itself as a contender by beating the number six Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the fourth week of the season. After beating the pre-season ACC favourite Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets the following week (hard to believe GT was favoured to win the ACC after their pitiful season) and Boston College in Week 6, Clemson thrashed the Miami Hurricanes by a score of 58-0.
                By the end of the season, though, Clemson seemed to struggle a bit in finishing with their unbeaten record. The regular season finale, against intra-state rival South Carolina, ended in a 37-32 win for the Tigers. The Gamecocks had not played well for the entire season, but almost managed to pull off the upset. Then there was the ACC Championship Game against North Carolina, where the Tigers finished the game with a 45-37 victory. So while the offense has lit up opponents all season, the defense has been a bit suspect and that could cause some concern against Oklahoma.
                The Sooners are the Big-12 Champions and are coming into the Orange Bowl on quite a roll. An 11-1 season saw Oklahoma suffer their only lost against a mediocre Texas Longhorns team back in October. The worst performance of the year for the Sooners, obviously, seemed to wake them up as they scored more than 50 points in five of their final seven games. Being led by quarterback, Baker Mayfield and running back, Samaje Perine, the Sooners must be licking their chops for a shot at Clemson’s defense and are looking for a shot to put up 50 once more.
                The question is whether or not the Oklahoma defense will be able to contain Deshaun Watson. The Tigers’ quarterback had an exceptional season, throwing for 3512 yards and 30 touchdowns, while also rushing for 887 yards and 11 touchdowns. Watson can beat you by himself in the air and on the ground. If Oklahoma can stop him, they can win. But no one has been able to stop him thus far in 2015.
                Look for a high-scoring game with Clemson winning a squeaker in the end.
Prediction: Clemson-45, Oklahoma-41

                As for the Cotton Bowl, which is finally significant again after being spurned by the BCS, the Alabama Crimson Tide, ranked number two, get another shot at a Big Ten team in the CFP semi-final after faltering against Ohio State in last year’s Sugar Bowl. The Tide are the only team from last year’s final four to make it again and are looking for their fourth NCAA championship in the last seven years under head coach, Nick Saban.
                Once again, the same as in 2014, Alabama’s only loss in their road to the SEC championship was at the hands of Ole Miss. The Rebels seem to have the Tide’s number, but Bama rebounded quite nicely after the loss in September.
                Alabama is led offensively by quarterback, Jake Coker (2489 passing yards and 17 touchdowns) and by Heisman-winning running back, Derrick Henry. On his way to the Heisman, Henry broke the SEC rushing record with 1986 yards and carried the ball into the end zone 23 times. He also captured the Doak Walker Award (NCAA’s top running back), the Maxwell Award (College Player of the Year voted by the media and NCAA head coaches) and the Walter Camp Award (Player of the year voted by the NCAA head coaches—no, I don’t know why the head coaches vote on two awards).
                Even though Henry got off to a slow start in the SEC Championship Game (although a strong second half brought his rush total to almost 190), Bama’s defense stifled the Florida Gators and will be looking to do the same to Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl.
                The Spartans, the Big Ten Champs after having knocked off Ohio State back in November and defeated previously undefeated Iowa in the Big Ten championship game, will be looking to upset the Tide this year, much as the Buckeyes did last year. The Spartans lost one game—a shocking upset at the hands of the 5-7 Nebraska Cornhuskers back in October. After watching the Spartans in every other game this year, it’s hard to figure that loss out. But it doesn’t matter any more as MSU is only two victories away from being the second Big Ten team to win the CFP.


                On offense, the Spartans are led by quarterback, Connor Cook, who threw for 2921 yards and 24 touchdowns despite missing the game against Ohio State. Michigan State’s defense is ranked seventh in the nation against the run, but that ranking will be put to the test when they square off against Henry and the Tide’s offensive line.
                As much as I am a Big Ten supporter, I don’t think the Spartans will pull off the upset that Ohio State did last year. I expect Alabama to jump ahead quickly and continue to pull away for the duration of the game. The Tide will win big.
Prediction: Alabama-38, Michigan State-14

                If my predictions hold true and Alabama and Clemson play in the Championship game on January 11, I would expect the Tide to win their fourth title while under Saban. Their defense will be able to stop Deshaun Watson and the Tigers’ defense will have their hands full with Derrick Henry.
CFP Final Prediction: Alabama-42, Clemson-27


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