The College Football Playoff
(CFP) picture just got a lot cloudier this past weekend, but what a weekend it was. Two
big upsets as a couple of teams fell from the ranks of the undefeated. And
other teams that appeared out of it only a few short weeks ago, worked themselves
back into the picture.
The updated CFP poll will be
released Tuesday evening and it should make for some interesting debate among
College Football fans. Personally, I’m excited for the next two weekends and I
don’t even know where to begin. Should I talk about who should be the top four,
or who doesn’t deserve to be there, or who plays who and what will happen if
so-and-so wins? However you look at it, Rivalry Weekend (coming up) and
Conference Championship Weekend (first Saturday in December) are going to be
too difficult to predict but will offer up a ton of drama.
Let’s start with the Clemson
Tigers. They were last week’s number one in the CFP rankings and that shouldn’t
change. The Tigers are now 11-0 after beating Wake Forest 33-13 on the weekend,
capping an undefeated conference season (8-0 in the ACC.) They have clinched
the ACC Atlantic Division and will play the North Carolina Tar Heels in the ACC
Championship on December 5th. Before that, though, is this weekend’s
game against their rival, South Carolina. The Gamecocks have had a miserable
season at 3-8 and won’t pose much of a threat to the Tigers. Clemson should
still be number one in the CFP when it is released Tuesday evening.
The Alabama Crimson Tide have a
10-1 record after destroying the Charleston Southern Buccaneers by a score of
56-6. Despite having one loss, to Ole Miss back in September, the Tide have
been rolling since that lone setback. They’ve already clinched the SEC West and
will play the Florida Gators in the SEC Championship. But rivalry weekend will
see them play inter-state rival, the Auburn Tigers, a pre-season favourite for
the National Championship and if Alabama wins both games, they will be ranked
number two in the final CFP rankings.
While the first two spots are
pretty solid, it’s number three and down that get a little confusing, as well
as controversial, perhaps. When the rankings are releases this week, Notre Dame
will be number three. I don’t agree with that choice, and I haven’t agreed with
the Irish being in the top four for the previous few weeks either. They haven’t
done anything this season to prove that they belong in the top four. Yes, they
are 10-1. Yes, their only loss is to Clemson by two points. But look at how
they’ve struggled in the other games. They turned the ball over five times
against Boston College last weekend and barely escaped with a 19-16 win. Struggles
against teams like Georgia Tech (unranked), USC (unranked) and Temple
(unranked) make me believe that they shouldn’t be—at this point—a top four
team. But it seems like the people who vote on the CFP desperately want the
Irish in the four-team playoff due to tradition, popularity and all that. A
loss to Stanford this coming weekend would definitely knock them out of
contention. Not having a thirteenth game due to not being in a conference would
hurt them as well.
Number four will most likely be
the Iowa Hawkeyes. They were number five last week and they remain the only
undefeated team in the Big Ten after Ohio State lost to Michigan State. The
Hawkeyes control their own destiny. They’ve already won the Big Ten West and
will play in the Big Ten Championship against either Ohio State, Michigan State
or Michigan. Their final regular season game is Friday against the Nebraska
Cornhuskers. They win that and win their Conference Championship game, a spot
in the top four is pretty much assured.
Now for the other contenders.
Whoever wins the Big 12 will only have one loss, but not having a conference
championship game will hurt them as much as it will the Irish. Three teams
still have a shot. The Oklahoma Sooners will play the Oklahoma State Cowboys
this Saturday. If the Sooners, whose only loss was a shocking, horrible
performance against the Texas Longhorns, will win the Conference with an 8-1
record (11-1 overall). If the Baylor Bears win their final two games, they will
finish at 8-1 as well, but their only loss was to the Sooners and therefore
they would lose the tie-breaker. Oklahoma State, who was undefeated until they
played Baylor on Saturday, needs to beat Oklahoma on Saturday, and hope Baylor
loses one of their remaining games. If Baylor wins both, they will be tied with
the Cowboys and will win the tie-breaker with the head-to-head.
In the Big Ten, Michigan State
controls its own destiny. The Spartans pulled off the upset against Ohio State
and now, with a victory over Penn State, will win the East and play the
undefeated Iowa Hawkeyes. By winning the Big Ten Conference, the Spartans would
be in the best position to pick up a top four spot. It the Spartans lose, the
winner of the Ohio State/Michigan game would win the East and have a chance to
knock off Iowa for the title. An Ohio State Big Ten Championship would likely
move them back into the playoff spot. The Wolverines, on the other hand, have
two losses and even winning the Conference would probably not be enough to get
the nod for the playoffs. A Michigan Big Ten title would assuredly hand the
fourth spot to the Big 12 Champ.
Confused yet? I hope so. It’s
what makes the College Game much more exciting than the NFL.
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