After two postseason runs for
the Jays, there’s a bit of an unknown heading into 2017. The disappointment of
a lackluster free agent market as far as Toronto was concerned (all talk, no
action) has passed and it’s time to evaluate what the team does have, rather
than who they didn’t get. Keep in mind that this is practically the same team
that advanced to the ALCS two years in a row, so there’s no reason to think
that they would take too many steps backwards. The question is, can they take a
step forward and go to the World Series.
Let’s start on a positive note and
look at what, without a doubt, is the strength of the team. That would be the
starting rotation. And it includes Marcus Stroman, JA Happ, Francisco Liriano,
Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada. The Jays starting staff last year led the
American League in ERA. Sanchez will be the best of the bunch after posting a
15-2 record last year with a 3.00 ERA and 161 strike outs. Happ was a bit of a
surprise last year (20-4, 3.18, 163) but there’s no reason to think that it was
a fluke. Estrada was hampered with a bad back in 2016 so if he’s recovered
fully, he’ll improve on his stats (9-9, 3.48, 165). Liriano will take RA
Dickey’s spot in the rotation and he’s an above average number five pitcher. In
ten games with the Jays after being picked up from Pittsburgh he was 2-2, had a
2.92 ERA and struck out 52.
And there’s no way Stroman will
have as bad a year as he did last year. In wasn’t a surprise considering he
missed most of 2015 recovering from knee surgery. Now that he’s had a full
season to get his feel on the mound back, he will be better than last season
(9-10, 4.37, 166).
As far as the bullpen goes, this
is a much improved area from 2016. Roberto Osuna, who has ice water in his veins,
will anchor the relief corps as the closer for the third year in a row. He won
four games in relief while saving 36. At only 22, the only fear is that he will
blow out his arm at such a young age if he sees too much work. But with more
support from his colleagues, his innings should be down a bit.
Jason Grilli, the grandpa of the
group at age 40, was a huge pick up for Toronto. He won six games out of the
pen, saved two and brought a gutsy, in-your-face, rah-rah attitude that the
fans fell in love with. Joe Biagini will one day be a starting pitcher, and
he’s great insurance if one of the current five hurlers in the rotation gets
injured, but he holds down the sixth and seventh inning assignments for now.
Free agent signings JP Howell
and Joe Smith looked good in Spring Training, but so did holdovers Aaron Loup
and Ryan Tepera. The Jays didn’t really have a left-handed option out of the
pen last year as Brett Cecil was awful, but Howell and Loup should provide that
in 2017.
Handling the pitching staff will
be Russell Martin, who will be in his third year behind the plate. Martin had a
great August at the plate where he seemed to carry the offense for a good
stretch, but he faded in September and looked absolutely awful in the playoffs.
Considering the Jays didn’t have much of a backup catcher (Josh Thole?!?), it
wasn’t surprising that Martin was worn out from catching every day. The backup
this year will be Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and although his numbers haven’t been
impressive over recent years, he does have a World Series ring with the Boston
Red Sox from 2013 and can handle the pitchers just as good, maybe even better,
than Martin.
The left side of the infield is
set, no problems, no questions. Perennial MVP candidate Josh Donaldson (easily
the best all round player on the team) will be better than he was last year
when he was slowed by a hip injury over the final couple of months. At
shortstop, Troy Tulowitzki is an amazing glove man and is solid at the plate.
While he will never put up the numbers he did in Colorado (no one ever does), a
.260 season with 25 homers and 80 RBIs wouldn’t be too much to ask.
The right side of the infield,
however, is a big question mark. Devon Travis is a good, solid player and is
the ideal candidate to hit at the top of the lineup. The problem is that he
gets hurt too much. If he can avoid injuries, it will go a long way to
determine how good this team will be. First base is the weakest spot in the
lineup. Justin Smoak is a good fielder, and can show his power every once in a
while, but he strikes out way too much to be an every day player. Steve Pearce
will likely play the position against left-handers, but he’s not as good with
the glove as Smoak.
Well, well, well. Who would have
ever thought at the end of 2016 that the starting right fielder for the 2017
Blue Jays would be Jose Bautista. But, after having swung and missed at other
potential outfielders, the Jays had to make an offer to the slugger. While I
don’t expect Bautista to play as bad as he did last year when he was
oft-injured as well, his best playing days are behind him. I think a .250
average with 25 homers and 90 RBIs maybe all that you could expect from him.
Kevin Pillar is another fan
favourite. He has a mitt worthy of being considered for a Gold Glove, and a bat worthy of the number
nine spot in the batting order. In left, it looks like a platoon system with
Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton splitting time. Carrera’s another one good in
the field but hasn’t shown much promise at the plate. However, if he plays
every day, with his speed, he could become a solid player.
As for Upton, he played the
worst baseball of his career when he was acquired by the Jays last year. But
considering he’s a free agent after 2017, I would expect him to put up some
good numbers. If he does well enough to win the every day job in left, he has talent
enough to hit .260, 20 homers and 60 RBIs. But I would let him go after this
season no matter how good he does.
The Jays took a lot of criticism
for letting Edwin Encarnacion go and signing Kendrys Morales as their
designated hitter, but I don’t think Toronto is losing that much. In 2016,
Edwin batted .263, hit 42 home runs and knocked in 127. Morales (.263, 30 and
93) may seem like a downgrade but keep in mind he played his home games in a
pitcher’s park (Kaufman Stadium in Kansas City). The Rogers Centre is more
hitter-friendly and there’s no reason to think that he can’t be the reliable
hitter EE was.
I think the Jays are a contender
for the American League Pennant. Their pitching staff, while not as flashy as
Boston’s top three, are still the best staff in the League. Their bullpen is
much improved. Now, if the offense can stop trying to hit 500 foot home runs on
every single swing and rely on situational hitting (like they didn’t do against
Cleveland in the ALCS) they can be even better than they were in both 2015 and
2016.
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