The All-Star Break may have come
at the wrong time for the Toronto Blue Jays. After losing that 19-inning
heartbreaker on Canada Day to the Cleveland Indians, the Jays won eight of
their final nine games before the break including seven in a row at one point.
They find themselves tied with the Boston Red Sox for the first Wild Card spot,
although the Sox would technically hold that spot due to a higher winning
percentage.
After sweeping the Kansas City Royals and taking three of four from the
Detroit Tigers last week, Toronto entered the break with a record of 51-40, two
games behind the A.L. East-leading Baltimore Orioles. Despite a rough start in
the first couple of months that dampened the pre-season expectations of the
team, media and fans, a strong start to July has them right in the thick of the
post-season races.
It’s a far cry from where they were at this point last year, as they
were nothing more than a mediocre team at 45-46, four games behind the New York
Yankees. A 21-6 August last season, including an 11-game winning streak, jump
started them on their way to the division title. It’s unrealistic to expect an
August record like that again this year, but they also won’t be coming from as
far behind as last season either.
Before we take a look at the second half, let’s just do a bit of a
review first. The Jays’ bats, after producing the most runs and home runs in
baseball a year ago, were slumping coming out of the gate. It was the Jays’
starting pitching that kept them in it for the first few months and now that
the runs are finally coming in bunches again, it’s starting to look like the
team from 2015.
Having said that, there are still a few things that are concerning. The
first—obviously—the poor job the bullpen has done this season. Of course,
missing Brett Cecil for an extended period of time didn’t help, and although
Cecil’s numbers aren’t that impressive thus far (0-5 won/loss record, 5.14 ERA)
you have to wonder how ineffective he was because of his arm trouble. Hopefully
he can recapture his 2015 magic in the second half.
I’ll be brief on Drew Storen: absolutely horrible (1-3, 5.63 ERA),
although he did pitch well in his last three starts before the break (no runs
allowed in 3 1/3 innings pitched). On the plus side, closer Roberto Osuna has
been excellent again, nailing down 18 saves thus far. Jesse Chavez has been
decent as well (3.41 ERA) and recently-acquired Jason Grilli has been effective
(2.63 ERA in 15 games). This group will need to be stronger in the second half
for the Jays to repeat as division champs.
The other source of concern is the amount of strike outs the Jays’
hitters have accumulated: 760, the third most in the American League. Also,
they are still having trouble hitting with men in scoring position which is the
reason they lost to Kansas City in the ALCS last year. But you can’t argue with
the way they’ve been driving in the runs lately.
Again, the offense is being led by reigning A.L. MVP Josh Donaldson.
After a bit of a slow start, Donaldson has turned on the heat over the last
month and a half and finds himself in the thick of MVP talk again. His .304
average, 23 home runs and 63 RBIs are pretty much on pace for matching his
totals from last year. Designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion also has to be
mentioned as an MVP candidate (.267, 23 and 80). Shortstop Troy Tulowitzki,
after his stint on the disabled list, is a much improved player now than he was
during the first couple of months. He’s raised his average to .239, has 15
homers and 43 RBIs.
Outfielder Michael Saunders has been a nice surprise (.298, 16, 42) and
once Jose Bautista returns from his injury problems, it’ll present another
problem for opposing pitchers.
As for the starters, they’ve been the biggest strength of the team thus
far. Marco Estrada (5-3, 2.93), Aaron Sanchez (9-1, 2.97) and JA Happ (12-3,
3.36) have been the three best pitchers to this point, although there have been
some rumours that Sanchez may move to the pen to help strengthen that group,
while also keeping his innings down. That would be a mistake in my book. I
don’t like the fact that young pitchers are being babied as much as they are
now. Look what happened to Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals. They
limited his innings when he first came up and he’s had nothing but injury
problems since.
Back to the Jays’ starters. R.A. Dickey is what he is: a knuckleballer,
and you never know what you’re going to get. Although with a little more run
support, he could have a much better record that 7-9. And Marcus Stroman hasn’t
lived up to the expectations of being the staff ace. The 7-4 record is
respectable but the 4.89 ERA isn’t. He’ll be looking for a better second half.
And speaking of the next two and a half months, things are looking good
for the Jays to repeat. They’ll start with some games against the A.L. West and
N.L. West for the first couple of weeks before locking horns with the Orioles
on the final weekend in July. They’ve played four more games than both
Baltimore and the Red Sox and that may be a positive. While those teams will
have to play those extra games, Toronto will get more opportunity to rest and
in a 162-game schedule, days off in the second half are vitally important to
remaining healthy and resting the aches and pains that happen during the
season.
So as we look forward to the resumption of the season tomorrow night,
I’m much more optimistic about the club than I was last year at this time. And
I’m going to stick to my pre-season prediction about the Jays repeating as A.L.
East champs.
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