Friday, 15 July 2016

The Dog Days of Summer: MLB second half preview

                With the baseball season resuming tonight, I thought it would be fun to take a look at my pre-season post-season predictions, see how I did and then make an update for the second half. Enjoy.
 
Toronto shortstop Troy Tulowitzki
American League East—I predicted the Toronto Blue Jays to repeat as division champions and the Boston Red Sox to win one of the Wild Card spots and both teams would qualify for the postseason as Wild Cards if the playoffs stated today. While I predicted the Baltimore Orioles to finish last in the division, they currently lead. However, I expect them to fade down the stretch and we’ll be treated to a division battle between Boston and Toronto. The Jays will win, Boston finishing a close second, Baltimore will slip to third and the Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays will battle for the basement.

Cleveland shortstop Francisco Lindor
American League Central—Never count out the Champions and even though the Kansas City Royals don’t look like the same team they were in 2015 (they currently sit seven games out) I expect them to give the Cleveland Indians a challenge in the second half. The Detroit Tigers (who I picked for a Wild Card spot) are still in the hunt as well but I don’t expect them to stay in the race as the season progresses. The Indians will hang on in the end, the Royals will finish second, but I don’t think they’ll capture either of the Wild Card spots. The White Sox and Minnesota won’t be a threat.
 
Houston pitcher Dallas Keuchel
American League West—A horrible start by the Houston Astros made my pick of them as division championship look rather foolish, but they’ve improved tremendously and are now only 5 ½ games behind the Texas Rangers at the break. I will stand firm with my prediction of Houston winning the division but it will be a battle all summer long. The Rangers will win a Wild Card spot with the Angels, Mariners and A’s all providing fodder as the two clubs from Texas will pad their record by playing those other three teams.
 
Washington hurler Max Scherzer
National League East—Hey, here’s one I got right. The Washington Nationals are ahead of the New York Mets and Miami Marlins by six games as we start the second half. Their combination of pitching (led by Matt Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg) and offense (led by Bryce Harper) will keep them at the top of the division once the end of September rolls around. The Mets have their hands full with the Marlins, who are playing very well, even without suspended Dee Gordon. Look for the Marlins to pass the Mets for one of the Wild Card spots. I won’t even bother talking about the Phillies and Braves.
 
Cubs third sacker Kris Bryant
National League Central—At one point, the Cubs seemed to be well on their way to winning the division by double digits. Now, not so much as the Pittsburgh Pirates have closed the gap to 7 ½ games, while St. Louis is currently second in the division at seven back but I expect them to falter a bit as the season wears on. I will pick to the Cubs to win the division, a reversal from my pre-season picks, but the Pirates will keep it close and secure a Wild Card spot. Playing the Brewers and Reds will inflate the records of the top three.
 
Giants lefty Madison Bumgarner
National League West—This is an even numbered year, so the San Francisco Giants will win the division. They lead the Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 ½ games and should be able to maintain that gap as the season moves along. It will be interesting to see if the Giants can go on the kind of postseason run that they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014 when they won the World Series all three years. The Rockies, Padres and D-Backs have a long way to go.

Post-season Predictions

AL Wild Card: Texas over Boston

ALDS: Toronto over Cleveland
Houston over Texas

ALCS: Toronto over Houston

NL Wild Card: Pittsburgh over Miami

NLCS: San Francisco over Pittsburgh
Chicago Cubs over Washington

NLCS: Cubs over San Francisco

World Series: Cubs over Toronto


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